We are providing the real-time Return on Investment (ROI) information of our ELF model for the 2016-2017 season.

Using a simple 1/2 Kelly Criterion structured for simultaneous betting, these charts will track the profitability of the models for this season. It will update daily.

Here is an example on how we calculate simultaneous bets: if I have two bets on one day, one calling for a full kelly wager of 2.5% and another calling for a 2% wager then I would bet (1-.025)*(1-.02)*2.5% = 2.387% on the first wager and (1-.025)*(1-.02)*2% = 1.91% on the second wager.

Keep in mind the following:

  • The moneyline values that are used in the profitability calculation are all taken at the start of each game.
  • The Kelly Criterion is calculated for both teams and a bet is placed on the stronger edge (larger value). A bet is not always placed on the team with the higher win probability. If both Kelly Criterion values are negative, no bet is placed.
  • Our models are proven for long-term betting and should not be solely evaluated on a seasonal representation.


Displayed as + percentage of bankroll. There is no reinvestment of earnings.

Active 2017-2018 models

Sign up for a subscription...


Copyright © 2016-2018 Don't Tell Me The Odds. All rights reserved.