Introduction

RUS is a proprietary model developed for the 2015-2016 season. It provides the score and win probability for every NHL game. It features custom regression algorithms that are influenced by roster choices. Hence its predictions are periodically updated throughout the day as teams finalize their lineup decisions.


Backtesting

The model was backtested using the same methodology here.


Results

Here are the model results if you invested $1,000 in 09/10 and then continued to reinvest your winnings each season. 1/2 Kelly Criterion was used to calculated the bet size. Profit each season is noted on the left of the graph at the corresponding dotted line.


RUS ROI graph 1

Here are the model results if you started each season with a $1,000 bankroll and did not reinvest your winnings. Profit each season is noted on the right of the graph.


RUS ROI graph 2

Highs and Lows

As you can see in the charts above, the returns are not linear, there will be ups and downs throughout any given season. To further demonstrate this point we looked at the data that produced the 2nd chart above (start each season with a $1,000 bankroll and did not reinvest your winnings). We broke the data into consecutive 5 day segments:

  • Best 5 Day Stretch: + $300.33
  • Worst 5 Day Stretch: - $258.60
  • Average 5 Day Stretch: + $16.85
  • Median 5 Day Stretch: + 19.73

Final Remarks

We implore people to use this information smartly. Make sure to find a staking plan that suits your risk appetite and overall bank size. Do not bet beyond your own personal means.

All seven years previously modelled have shown to provide value, but the future is not guaranteed. We do not sell this service with the promise of profitability. We do sell this service with the promise of providing the same analysis the generated results detail above.

Real-time and past profitability

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